Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified points, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but each side has got something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
